Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. We offer an exposé of the problems within the reporting system, and an assessment of underlying economic reality, through two basic services:
(1) John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics is a monthly electronic newsletter that exposes and analyzes the flaws in current U.S. government data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers. Generally published on the Wednesday following the employment report, the newsletter is supplemented by occasional interim special reports that highlight unusual developments. The publication includes regular analysis of:
* The prior month’s reporting (employment/unemployment, CPI, GDP, retail sales, housing statistics, factory orders, trade balance, consumer confidence, purchasing managers’ survey
* The coming month’s reporting, highlighting unusual circumstances and biases that could bring results in above or below market expectations.
* Economic series that are relatively free of reporting biases and what they indicate about the economy and inflation.
* Special features detailing the background of government series not previously explored in the newsletter, along with updates to changes in reporting methodologies for all major series.
Examples of What the Monthly Newsletter and
Its Periodic Alerts and Supplements Cover
A sampling of the type of material "Shadow Government Statistics" regularly covers is found in the John Williams series authored exclusively for the Gillespie Research Associates website. This series consisted of four installments, plus a master introduction. Written under the umbrella title, "Government Economic Reports: What You’ve Suspected but Were Afraid to Ask," each installment is available in the right-hand column, in the section entitled, "A Primer on Government Economic Reports." The installments also can be accessed using the following links:
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